The Tajik authorities expect their foreign partners to support the country’s largest project to date – the 3780 MW Rogun hydropower plant. Conceived in the 1970s, as a 335-meter-high dam with 13 cubic kilometres storage reservoir, the project was supposed to become the tallest structure of its kind in the world.
Since the project relaunch in 2006, Tajikistan has already spent USD 3.3 billion on it and still lacks at least USD 6.4 billion to complete this project. Less than 25% of all construction works have been completed by the end of 2023. All the major international financial institutions (IFIs) – the World Bank (WB), European Investment Bank (EIB), Islamic Development Bank (IDB), Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Asian Development Bank and eight more are under pressure to get involved in the “Rogun sustainable finance” scheme orchestrated by the WB. The same and other IFIs, such as the ADB and EBRD, finance associated projects: roads and transmission lines enabling construction and functioning of the Rogun dam.
In October 2024, the World Bank published “Appraisal Project Information Document(PID)” with a list of alleged financiers of the “Sustainable Financing for Rogun Hydropower Project”:
The financial table has numerous discrepancies:
World Bank (IDA) contribution is shown as 350.00, however the text of PID says that overall World Bank contribution to the two phases of the project will be 650 million.
Foreign Multilateral Institutions are unidentified, but contribute 500.00 (elsewhere on the WB website this contribution was attributed to the Asian Development Bank)
Unidentified “Bilateral Agencies” will contribute 450.00 (In July the WB directly pointed that the Italy’s Development Cooperation Department (MOFA) will contribute 81 million, but in October it was substituted by hypothetical unidentified agencies.
Cumulatively all IFIs named in the list could allegedly contribute 1850.00 million, which is less than 30% of the sum needed to complete the Rogun HPP Project, as calculated by the IMF in early 2024 (6400 million).
From the international finance institution on this list only Islamic Development Bank, OPEC Fund and Saudi Fund for Development have already approved financing for construction of the Rogun Hydro so far (As reported in public information sources by October 14, 2024).
All in all the World Bank’s new PID does not contain a coherent explanation how much of this funding comes in grants and how much comes in loans and on what conditions). It also fails to explain what is the cost of the “Phase I”, which is planned to last till 2029 and increase capacity to 1600MW, and how much specific donors contribute to financing it.
AIIB Observer. Volume 2. Article on Rogun HPP . September 2024