Rogun Hydro Project

in Aral Sea Basin, Tajikistan

335 metres

the tallest dam in the world

50,000

expected number of displaced people

Last blow on Aral Sea basin

Why multilateral development banks should not finance the Rogun HPP Project

Rogun Hydropower Project is the biggest dam planned in the former Aral Sea basin. It is the largest reservoir in 6-dam cascade on Vakhsh River in Tajikistan, that upon completion will have a volume of 13 km3. By 2024 only 20% of construction has been completed. Why World Bank and other financiers are now considering financing of this project, which completion is scheduled for 2040?

Rogun Hydro consequences

Colonization by decarbonization

The environment assessment proves that the Rogun project is not climate friendly. According to EU standards, with more than 102g CO2 e/KWH it does not meet the criteria for a “substantial contribution” to climate change mitigation. Nor will Rogun hydropower contribute to the decarbonisation of the Tajik energy system, which has a similar emission intensity (106g CO2 e/KWH). If Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan decide to rely on energy imports from this source, the project could delay Central Asia’s green transition by 15 years. Meanwhile the exorbitant cost of the Rogun Dam project will make the electricity produced by it no affordable to poor populations of Tajikistan and other countries of the region.

Key issues of rogun dam project

Rogun Dam Alerts

The Rogun Hydro once caused a major controversy between Tajikistan and downstream countries as it may have capacity to redirect waters needed for irrigation and other survival needs. It also will have major environmental and social impacts, which assessments so far have been superficial and incomplete. Nevertheless the World Bank falsely claimed in April 2024 that “The environmental and social instruments of Rogun HPP Project comply with the requirements of the World Bank’s Environmental and Social Framework”. Here we explain why it is a dangerous overstatement, which may have major negative consequences.

Rogun resettlement

50,000 people resettling will inevitably have massive environmental and social impacts. All the more so in a society with few political and individual freedoms, low levels of transparency, the highest level of corruption, and exacerbating human rights violations.

Rogun, World Heritage and biodiversity

The project fails to develop measures mitigating major negative impacts, including the reduction of the river flow to the Aral Sea, impacts on the “Tugay Forests of the Tigrovaya Balka” World Heritage site in the Vakhsh River floodplain, degradation of habitat of critically endangered endemic sturgeons.

What if the dam fails?

Rogun Dam safety has always been a concern, as the location selected for construction sits atop of a seismic fault and a salt dome. The lengthy construction process was several times arrested and reverted by floods and earthquakes.

Debt distress and IMF trickery

According to 2023 report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tajikistan’s ‘fiscal space remains limited due to debt sustainability concerns’ and Rogun investment has been a major problem for country’s fiscal health, while both the project costs and delays are on increase.

Water flow and water security

There is no credible answer to a crucial question, whether there is sufficient water resource available for filling the giant Rogun reservoir without compromising needs of other sectors and riparian countries.

Alternatives to Rogun HPP

Alternative renewable schemes based on solar and wind could be built five times faster and three times cheaper than the giant Rogun HPP, whose price tag has been rising at a rate of 15 per cent a year since 2008.

Key issues of rogun dam project

Rogun Dam Context

Tajikistan – a small, landlocked, mountainous country in Central Asia – is at the crossroads of major geopolitical interests. Tajikistan borders Afghanistan and China. Russia considers this ex-USSR country to be in its sphere of interest, and Europe has declared its readiness to reduce the Central Asian countries’ dependence on Russia, and counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Human Rights Context

Countries of Central Asia have problematic human rights record and working there presents a big challenge for civil society organizations and activists…

Water Management in Central Asia

The best known problem in water management in the region is desiccation of the Aral Sea, which was caused by excessive development of water infrastructure and irrigated agriculture.

False Promises of Hydropower

Hydropower construction, which is decreasing globally, is experiencing revival in the countries of Central Asia, including Tajikistan.

ROGUN DAM TIMELINE

Endless construction of the tallest dam in the world

Construction of the Rogun dam began in the Soviet era, in 1976, but was abandoned in 1993 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Over three decades only preliminary construction has been carried out on the dam. Due to its controversial state, the construction was suspended in August 2012. The project was restarted by the Tajik government in 2016. In 2023 World Bank, ABII, and other international banks decided to resume the endless construction…

1976

First Start

The Rogun Dam was first proposed in 1959 and a technical scheme was developed by 1965. Construction began in 1976, however the project stalled after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

1993

The dam failed

The tragedy occurred on May 8, 1993, when the existing coffer dam was washed away by a severe flood, and tunnels and the main generator hall were partially flooded

2016

The dam begins, again

On October 29, 2016 Tajik president officially launched the construction of the tallest dam in the world. At the ceremony, the river’s flow was ceremonially diverted through the reconstructed diversion tunnels.

2023

New wine in old wineskins

World Bank, ABII, and other international banks decided to resume the endless construction…

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Recent news

Rogun Project in Media

Objective news on Rogun Hydro is hard to find due to active promotion of this megaproject by its proponents and lack of independent journalism in the region. We present here a selection from the media addressing various crucial problems related to Rogun HPP and other hydropower in Central Asia.

  • OPEC Fund backs Tajikistan’s Rogun hydro plant with $25M loan
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    OPEC Fund backs Tajikistan’s Rogun hydro plant with $25M loan

    Tajikistan’s landmark Rogun hydroelectric project has just received a $25 million boost in the form of a loan from the OPEC Fund. The loan is the first tranche of a US$100 million OPEC Fund financing facility for the project. Construction began on the Rogun Dam in the Soviet-era 1970s, only to be canceled after the…

  • ADB Allocates $15 Million to Tajikistan for Power Grid Reconnection in Central Asia
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    ADB Allocates $15 Million to Tajikistan for Power Grid Reconnection in Central Asia

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a grant of $15 million for a project to reconnect Tajikistan’s power lines to the Central Asian unified electricity grid. The reconnection, it is reported, will be carried out through mutual relations with Uzbekistan. “Through the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) program, ADB actively promotes regional power…

  • Tajikistan’s Winter Electricity Rationing Starts Early
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    Tajikistan’s Winter Electricity Rationing Starts Early

    Typically, rationing in rural areas begins in late October, but this year the state power company announced the start of restrictions on electricity in late September. Winter has come early in Tajikistan, with the national power company, Barqi Tojik, notifying customers on September 21 that seasonal rationing of electricity would begin the following day “where…